Miles Brundage, former Head of Policy at OpenAI, walks through why there are so many competing narratives about AI progress right now. His conclusion is that many people are talking about different things altogether when they talk about "progress" and why it can feel simultaneously like both narratives are true: that progress has plateaued and that new models continue to break new ground. It's a good six-minute overview of the different kinds of models that are out there without getting too technical about architectures.
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