It may sound overly simplistic, but making predictions by extrapolating straight lines on graphs is likely to give you a better model of the future than most “experts” - even better than most actual domain experts!
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Reasoning about exponential progress is extremely hard to do for humans. As Schrittwieser points out, we made the same cognitive errors at the beginning of Covid.
His conclusion: using the METR evals as one measure, we’re right on track and models continue to make exponential progress.